Self-Control Theory and Nonlinear Effects on Offending

Objectives. This paper examines Gottfredson and Hirschi’s (1990) self-control theory and develops theoretical arguments for why self-control may have a differential effect on offending depending on the level of self-control. Methods. We test the argument that the association between self-control and violent offending (n=5,681) and non-violent offending (5,672) is nonlinear by using generalized propensity score analyses of data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Results. The results indicate that self-control and offending are nonlinearly related in a manner that involves two thresholds. Specifically, among individuals at the high end of the selfcontrol spectrum, there was little evidence of an association between variation in self-control and offending. However, among individuals in the middle part of the self-control spectrum, a positive association obtained—that is, the greater the level of low self-control, the greater the likelihood of offending. Finally, among individuals at the low end of the self-control spectrum, there was, once again, little evidence of an association. Conclusions. A nonlinear association between self-control and offending may exist and have implications for self-control theory and tests of it. Studies are needed to investigate further the possibility of a nonlinear association and to test empirically the mechanisms that give rise to it.